Bitcoin (BTC) tracks price predictions precisely and no longer makes investors wait for gains in this bull cycle, says renowned quant analyst PlanB.
In a tweet On December 17, the creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model noted that in the current halving cycle, Bitcoin’s growth is progressing as planned.
BTC price hit $ 23,562 stock-to-flow target
Despite tremendous volatility this week, stock-to-flow remains striking in its ability to predict the pace of change in Bitcoin price over longer periods.
Critics have argued that Bitcoin cannot repeat its behavior from the last bull cycle – especially from 2017 – and that gains will be less pronounced this time around, while taking longer to realize.
Comparing performance since May, the date of Bitcoin’s third block grant halving With that after halving one and two in 2012 and 2017, this year cannot be a textbook result anymore, says PlanB.
“RIP” extended cycles “and” diminishing returns, “he summarized alongside a new chart.
Bitcoin goes to the top above $ 23,000 it further allowed to fill in empty space on the stock-to-flow model. Before that, BTC / USD was basically underperforming compared to the model’s demands at just under $ 20,000.
Such as Cointelegraph reportedBut even in November, Bitcoin was already beating its performance from the 2016 halving.
The various incarnations of Stock-to-flow call for a Bitcoin price of anywhere from $ 100,000 to $ 576,000 by the end of the current 2024 halving cycle. BTC / USD hit exactly the original model’s daily forecast – $ 23,562 – on Thursday.
Erb: Bitcoin’s “fair price” is $ 12,000
Much to the chagrin of skeptics, a rapidly increasing number of institutional funders are starting to share this view – and put their money in their mouths to prove it.
This week, One River Asset Management unveiled a plan to expand Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) exposure to more than $ 1 billion by early 2021. Guggenheim, which reserves the right to allocate some of its own capital to BTC, now says a fair value for Bitcoin is $ 400,000 – 1,600% higher than the all-time high on Thursday.
Only a few new outliers drag the line for the bears. Among them is Claude Erb, the asset manager famous for writing ‘The Gold Dilemma’, which argues against the precious metal’s usefulness as a hedge against unexpected inflation.
In a new paper titled “Bitcoin is exactly like gold, except when it isn’t,” Erb produces a new pricing model loosely tied to the network effect that yields a maximum theoretical value of $ 74,000 per Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has no track record as an inflation hedge, a store of value and a safe haven,” the summary reads.
“The price of Bitcoin can arguably be broken down into a questionably fair price of the ‘bitcoin network’ and a fair price deviation. Both bitcoin and gold are about 50% above their ‘fair prices’. ”