The price of Bitcoin (BTC) represents two pivotal events on December 1 right after the close of the weekly and monthly candles. The upcoming weekly candle close is especially notable as it could mark the first red weekly candle since late September.

The monthly candle will be significant as it would mark the highest close in Bitcoin’s history if the price remains above USD 13,791.

Bitcoin realized volatility. Source: Cointelegraph Markets, Digital Assets Data

There are three key factors that can cause Bitcoin’s volatility to rise as the weekly and monthly candle close. The factors are general uncertainty around the BTC price, record high futures trading and open interest, as well as the overloaded weekly chart.

Meanwhile, traders have become cautious anticipating a short term downturn despite the price recovering from around $ 16,500 on Nov. 28.

There are two main trends that can boost BTC’s recovery. First, Guggenheim Investments, a global asset manager with more than $ 233 billion in assets under management, secured the right to invest $ 500 million in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

In the US, where no Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) exists, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is the first entry point for most institutional investors. Deribit reported that the news sparked significant buying activity in the options market. The firm said:

Reports from the Behemoth Guggenheim Macro Opps fund seeking to allocate $ 500 million, announced over the weekend, were taken by surprise by short + TA pullback allocators as BTC bounced 2k from lows. The quiet market for wknd options was ignited. Bought Dec Calls, funded by Puts; hedges settled. “

Second, high net worth investors and whales could buy the dip ahead of Monday. In recent weeks, as quantitative traders pointed out, most of the demand came from US buyers.

Some speculate that demand comes from Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) algorithms, typically used by institutions and funds. As the TWAP algorithms were to be reactivated on Monday, this could increase buyer demand for BTC.

Traders are generally unsure of BTC’s price direction

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market right now as traders are divided on where the next price will go.